In 2021, seven EU solar markets installed more than 1 GW of solar–Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, France, Greece and Denmark
The number of GW-scale markets has increased by two compared to the five from last year. While the top four markets–Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland–have remained stable, three new entrants have filled the remaining slots. France, ranked fifth, comfortably surpassed 2 GW of annual installations, after a lackluster performance in 2020. At position six we find Greece, who installed more than 1 GW for the first time since 2013. But the biggest surprise in this list is Denmark, which joins the GW club for the first time ever. The country is having a stellar performance in 2021 with 1.2 GW of expected annual additions, which is more than twice the capacity installed in 2012, the best year so far. For 2022, we expect the group to broaden further, with Italy reaching the GW scale after a long while.
The expansion of solar technology in different geographies across the EU will continue over the next years, as countries identify solar as the most versatile and cost-competitive solution to their climate and energy needs. In 2023, we expect to reach 11 GW markets across the European Union, which will become 12 by 2025
1.EU solar markets 2021
Our analysis sees the Top 10 EU solar markets install 138 GW from 2022 until 2025 in the most probable Medium Scenario, 91.9 GW in a Low Scenario and 173.0 GW in the High Scenario.
2.Prospects 2022-2025
As another very good year for solar comes to an end,the EU solar sector has grown by an estimated 34% to 25.9 GW, which means an all-time high for the European Union, beating the decade old 21.3 GW record from 2011. The coming 4 years until 2025 will be characterised by further strong growth, according to our Medium Scenario. While analysts anticipate inflated module prices will return to ‘normal’ levels in the second half of 2022, it remains to be seen when exactly this will happen. In any case, the elevated module prices will have negative impacts on certain projects in 2022, and probably even more than in 2021 when developers and EPCs had still volumes on hand that were ordered at much lower price levels, even if the actual quantities received were often less than expected. However, at 16% annual growth rates, 2022 will turn into another record year for solar in Europe and the first time the 30 GW threshold will be reached.
With prices back to normal and Germany’s massive new plans for solar to gain traction in 2023 and for the first time reaching a 10 GW annual market size, we anticipate a 28% growth rate to 38.5 GW in the EU. Though the growth rates will turn more moderate in the following two years – 16% in 2024 and 11% in 2025–this will be enough to result in annual solar deployment volumes above the 40 GW level – 44.6 GW in 2024 and at 49.7 GW in 2025, thus nearly touching the 50 GW level.
Part of the article excerpted from the network, infringement contact deleted.
